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Tag: coronavirus

  • We Are All Start-Ups Now!

    So, it’s The Great Lockdown then. That’s the name given to this crisis period by the IMF and I’m hoping there’s another Isaac Newton out there. Well, not quite. Newton famously developed humanity’s knowledge of calculus, light refraction and gravity while quarantined during the Great Plague of 1665. Right now, behind the global public health priority of a CV-19 vaccine, the world is in urgent need of a gravity-defying economic plan. Newton’s falling apple suggested what goes up must come down. The task today is to figure out how a Lock-Down transitions to, hopefully, an Open-Up in the coming months. The laws of gravity and economics are challenging to say the least.

    Let’s start with a few numbers. How much are we really down? The IMF reckons global GDP in 2020 will shrink by a higher percentage (3 %) than any period since the Great Depression. That’s even more than the nadir of the credit crisis in 2009. In dollar terms, January IMF forecasts of 3% growth this year have in a matter of weeks seen $5.2 trillion worth of activity evaporate from those 2020 expectations. The IMF think the ultimate cost through 2021 could be closer to $9 trillion – that is the equivalent of Japan and Germany’s economies disappearing. Here are a few other numbers which hint at the scale of the gravitational pull on economic recovery:

    • Commodities: The IEA is forecasting oil demand for 2020 to fall by more than 9 million barrels per day (!). In April alone that number will fall by 29 million barrels per day. In effect, global economic activity/consumption has returned to 1995 levels. Good news for the climate but catastrophic for nations dependent on exporting commodities.
    • Banks: Ireland might escape the worst GDP implosions likely to hit Italy and Spain but a quick check of bank share prices in Ireland gives some clues as to the scale of capital destruction. The combined market valuations of AIB, BOI and IPTSB amount to just over €4 billion, or just over 20% of the combined book value of these banks ie the market is discounting €16 billion of capital at risk of wipe-out. Then, factor in a 2020 Irish government budget surplus of €2 billion vaporizing into an estimated €19 billion deficit. That’s another €21 billion we might not have in 2021.
    • Corporate Debt: Back in 2009 a critical factor in capital destruction was the amount of leverage in the banking system. We have written frequently about the risks of being dependent on “other people’s money”. Fast forward to 2020, and it is clear companies across the globe have feasted on ultra-low interest rates and loaded their balance sheets with debt. The Institute of International Finance estimated corporate debt levels among non-banks had rocketed to $75 trillion by the end of 2019. That figure was $48 trillion at the end of 2009.

    Yes, the numbers are quite scary. However, the intention of this article is not to frighten but rather to highlight the difference between two competing emergencies. Governments and central banks everywhere have moved swiftly to address the immediate cash flow issues of citizens and companies experiencing a collapse in income and revenues. The longer term issue is how creditors and debtors deal with damaged balance sheets and the need for additional capital to “Open-Up”.

    The Lockdown is a cash flow emergency. The Open-Up phase will probably be phased and slow. The entire world from universities to airlines will need capital buffers to navigate a possibly very changed world. Bluntly, the capital destruction estimated/discounted in the forecasts summarized above suggests too many capital-hungry mouths to feed. Previous years’ financial performances by established corporates may not be a helpful guide to the future. Companies will have to be realistic with their projections and tell their story very well. The risk profile for many sectors has endured a meteor strike and, in a sense, business models will have to be rebuilt, or in start-up terminology, pivot.

    Yes, the Great Open-Up will be a capital event without precedent.  We are all start-ups now.

  • Corporate Change Is Not New, Just Accelerating…

    I have to confess I haven’t been sleeping great the last few days. It is probably only natural that a changing world is causing the mind to race a little. Pink moons, or not, the nights can be dark for many in these uncertain hours. Some might think of lithium. I’m thinking of equilibrium. Balancing so much uncertainty and change is a mental challenge but perhaps we were already doing that? Just at a slower pace. Let’s think slowly about change for a few moments.

    Amazon started out in life more than 25 years ago as an online marketplace for books. An online marketplace, who knew? The Amazon monster has been blamed for the obliteration of many retail businesses since but would it surprise you to know that prior to the CV-19 shut-down employment in the US retail sector was at an all-time high?  Change, yes. Destruction, not so much.

    Microsoft is 45 years old. The software giant is now at the forefront of a work revolution. Thanks to cloud hosting services, many businesses have been able to operate on a remote basis in the current shut down. But hot desks, work-from-home and 4-day weeks are not new concepts as companies compete for talent and efficiencies. In fact, productivity has been a major challenge for developed economies for the last decade. Microsoft itself, in 2019, trialled a 4-day week in its Japanese operation and achieved 40% productivity improvements. Expect more “trials” and rapid change after this crisis.

    Away from work, Netflix is 23 years old and streaming an enormous channel of high-quality content to our homes and mobile devices. It spent $15 billion on creating content last year and is forcing change at the very largest media giants. Disney will be relieved they had embraced the streaming revolution as cinemas and theme parks now lie empty. Their Disney+ streaming service just signed up their 50 millionth subscriber since November. So, they achieved in 5 months what it took Netflix 7 years to do.  Change can literally mean survival.

    Clearly, the education, fitness and healthcare industries have their own revolutionary protagonists. And don’t forget the EV revolutionary, Tesla, and it’s 17 year journey. Just a quick reminder that Tesla’s market value was higher than Ford, GM and BMW combined before CV-19! So, let’s be very clear that change is constant but can suddenly accelerate into more universal adoption. The prizes can vary from supra-normal profits to survival.  The costs can vary from increased integration/education costs and investment spend to bankruptcy and liquidation fees.

    CV-19 is an accelerator period not unlike WW2. Science, healthcare and security will be uppermost in people’s minds and exact a cost from business. But not all costs are bad. Change can be frightening but very often good for all in the long run. In two instances an acceleration of change would be a very good thing. For far too long urbanization has been a driver of wealth creation. But at what cost?  CV-19 has laid bare the risks in neglecting two huge public health issues: adequate access to housing and healthcare.

    Perhaps the biggest change to come is a reversal of urbanization as corporates embrace remote working arrangements and a diversification of their greatest asset, talent.  Be under no illusions, workers are recalibrating their values and their lives right now too. Change is guaranteed, much of it good. You might even sleep better too. Good night, John Prine.

    “ When I was a mailman, writing songs was my escape from the regular world, and now writing songs is my job. And I’ve always been one to avoid my job.” – John Prine (1946-2020)

     

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  • Data For New Businesses And Behaviours

    And just for a moment I felt part of the new social Zeitgest. My search for business trivia questions for our Zoom table quiz this evening included a quick perusal of the Financial Times (FT) and a rude awakening. Germany is not just leading Europe in the Covid-19 containment stakes. The country is celebrating its medical Covid heroes in dramatic social fashion. The FT article which caught the eye highlighted data from Bavaria revealing a 3,000% increase in sales of fantasy nurse costumes. Leaving aside that racy data point, there is no question social activities and behaviours will evolve through this pandemic and create new business opportunities.

    If we return to more casual attire and online social interaction it would appear a Zoom generation of quiz maestros and game gurus has been launched. Zoom the online meeting app has experienced a 535% growth in monthly traffic with millions experiencing the low-cost joy of online giggles, competition and banter accompanied by the odd grape or grain sourced beverage. People have discovered their homes, big or small, can host a social life and skip the hassle of babysitters, taxis and wardrobe anxiety. One can expect social platforms for various interests and competitive activities to emerge with exciting scaling opportunities. Even before this pandemic, an online quiz app, HQ Trivia, was played by more than 2 million people a day at its peak. But it’s not all play and no work.

    The vast majority of my work conversations this week have referenced the future of work. More specifically, cramped open-plan offices are unlikely to be the answer in a post-Covid-19 world. According to the US real estate company, CoStar, the average number of square feet of office space per worker has declined from 260 square feet in 1990 to 180 square feet today in many large cities. We have previously written about how WeWork probably won’t work as an investment but its successors and other co-working sites will need to address design issues urgently. WeWork operates on a 75 square foot per worker model and that includes the spacious common areas and the beer taps!

    Of course, going forward companies will also potentially look at significant percentages of their workforce continuing to work from home for certain days in the week. Collaborative working tools like Microsoft Teams and Slack are witnessing explosive growth in usage. Microsoft alone added 12 million new users in the week ending March 19th.  On a more ominous note, there have been reports of some companies using the video cameras in worker laptops to alert them if people leave their desks. This raises privacy issues irrespective of what governments will use next in their efforts to enforce social distancing policies. In an uncertain world, one thing is certain. Companies are going to be spending a lot of money on advice on how best to re-configure their office staffing levels and work-from-home conditions. Benchmarking of those steps is yet another data opportunity for the ESG world and could be costly for less attentive corporates. Indeed, ignorance could be fatal.

    Speaking of ignorance and privacy. Who isn’t fascinated by the location data release from Google on population mobility?  In order to control populations, the Big Brother approach might be needed. Particularly if a worryingly large percentage of a population watch Fox News and have missed some pretty important information. The Governor of Georgia just yesterday claimed he was only aware of asymptomatic Covid-19 transmission “in the last 24 hours”. Meanwhile, Google traffic data tells us visits to retail and recreation locations are down by 62% in New York State. The state of Arkansas is another GOP governor state and blissful ignorance is still rife – just the 29% fall in retail and recreation movement.

    We are in an unknown territory but ignorance could be fatal for individuals and businesses. Data will help inform and record the experience but also signal change. Business owners and entrepreneurs would be advised to watch the data carefully.

  • Ten Rising Valuations

    On the odd occasion over the past week, I will admit to a tinge of regret over the timing of a 100-day alcohol-free challenge. It doesn’t last long. A quick glance at any news footage swiftly calibrates my thoughts as to the true challenges in our utterly transformed Covid-19 world.

    The human, economic and social losses are already dreadful and we have no idea when our lives might return to a more normal rhythm. The not knowing is tough. However, that day will come and a very sobering ten days has prompted a search for positive thoughts. Ironically, as financial markets fall in value there are welcome signs of other socio-economic essentials gaining in value. Here’s our top ten:

    1. Value of Science: Science and facts have recovered their essential role in decisions of critical importance. In this era of social media dependency there has been an alarming consequence of individuals “choosing” their own sources of information. Widescale disdain for science and subjective selection of “facts” has facilitated a dangerous conflation of opinion and fact. Unfortunately, it has taken more than 10,000 deaths, horrific ICU scenes and a global economic shut down to disabuse the “just a flu” view. The facts and real doctors have overwhelmed the spin doctors. Now the hope going forward is that expertise is once again valued rather than sneered upon.
    2. Value of Leadership: It is unfortunate that Ireland’s two most important trading partners are burdened with dysfunctional political environments and chronic fact-free leadership. The “herd immunity” gymnastics of Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings have cost the UK precious days of Covid-19 containment. There is a real danger of needless additional loss of life and a painful realisation that a leader’s casual acquaintance with the truth in a crisis is extremely damaging. Indeed, the consequences of Donald Trump’s daily delusions could be even more catastrophic for US citizens. In contrast, the informed and realistic public messaging from Merkel, Macron and Varadkar has illustrated what leadership can be, but laid bare the risks of entrusting power in the hands of mendacious journalists and reality TV stars.
    3. Value of Planet Earth: We haven’t figured out anywhere else to inhabit. One would be hopeful that mass exposure to the threat of a global socio-economic collapse will focus minds on preventing similar threats in the future. Climate change is a scientifically documented threat to all inhabitants of our planet despite what Donald Trump and other fossil fuel champions might opine. So, expect the ESG revolution to gather further momentum.
    4. Value of Work: We have often written about the dangers of extreme income inequality which now rivals levels last seen in the 1930s. This crisis has surely revealed the true value of essential skills in the likes of healthcare, logistics, education and food supply. The irony of “unskilled workers” now being described as essential to the UK economy skirts over the fact that many of these workers are also immigrants. Perhaps the next round of pay negotiations will be more rewarding and supported by a more appreciative society. Furthermore, governments are also now being introduced to the instant evaporation of incomes from the gig economy and zero-hour contracts. Post Covid-19, expect companies who avail of state bailouts to receive serious scrutiny of their commitments to their workers, even if they don’t want them badged as employees.
    5. Value of Technology: As families, businesses and communities adjust to huge change many will be introduced for the first time to the solutions technology can provide. How many families were thankful of the online children’s PE class hosted by Joe Wicks yesterday morning? About 800,000 families apparently. Take your pick from tele-conferencing, online order/deliveries, entertainment streaming, telemedical apps and educational videos as 20% of the planet’s population is in lock-down. Life will never be the same again for many as they discover new services and more rewarding uses of their time. All powered by technology.
    6. Value of Education: As people experience a curtailment of their social lives and an exhaustion of Netflix, Instagram and Tik-Tok entertainment this is a timely opportunity to reflect and stretch the mind. In a sense, we have been forced to confront our own mortality and the safety of those we love. But also, we might reflect on the potential ‘mortality’ of a business or career. This feels like the moment when continuous learning and upskilling goes mainstream. Educational platforms like Coursera, LinkedIn Learning, EdX and Udemy can expect significant growth in the coming months.
    7. Value of Community: Who would have thought the UK Conservative Party would go full metal jacket socialist while the Labour Party ripped itself apart for a post-Corbyn coronation! On a more serious note, don’t be surprised to see the traditional and much-maligned European model of state/social support being the winner in a post Covid-19 world. Some communities will fare better than others in this crisis and it will depend on how all tiers of each society share the challenge and support the vulnerable. Reports of a spike in ammunition and gun sales in the US are not a particularly auspicious start to the challenges fast approaching that society. On a more positive note this is the first time the world is united against a common enemy since WW2. Community solidarity can achieve many things from innovation to workforce inclusivity. Even empathy.
    8. Value of History: Voltaire said, “History never repeats itself; man always does.” After the 2008-2009 credit crisis there has been frustration in many countries that previous bad actors in corporate, media and political life were able to re-invent themselves and airbrush history. Surely in a digital world we can do better this time. Exhibit A in the nausea stakes is White House economics advisor, Larry Kudlow, revisiting our screens to reassure and spout the same utter nonsense he floated on CNBC in 2008. This writer’s earnest wish is that all passive enablers and promoters of Trumpian and Boris falsehoods will be exiled from ‘expert’ panels, company boards, legislative bodies and TV screens forever. Covid-19 will have many innocent victims but history must convict the guilty few charlatans swiftly.
    9. Value of Mental Health: Social isolation will be a new experience for many. They will learn new coping mechanisms and swiftly understand the challenges of the lack of social interaction. For a significant percentage of society mental health is an every day, every year challenge. There is a genuine possibility this crisis will massively increase awareness, prompt good habits and deepen the understanding and importance of mental health.
    10. Value of Kindness: Already this crisis has revealed uplifting stories of outstanding kindness. What is less well documented is the positive feedback loop created by little acts of kindness. Just reaching out to 5 people a day and asking how they are doing is a good habit and strengthens the resilience of both parties during this period of quiet isolation. The same could be said in business. Those franchises that continue to communicate well to staff, suppliers, community and customers through this period will emerge from the crisis stronger versus less thoughtful competitors. It should also become apparent that deliberate misinformation or callous messaging could be fatal for business too. Fancy a pint in Wetherspoons any time in the next decade?

    The months ahead will be tough. Hopefully, the values listed above continue to rise and society re-sets in a positive way. Honesty will probably save many lives and prompts one final thought. In some ways the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown was a greater threat to the planet but we just didn’t know about it at the time. The HBO series documenting these terrifying events had a wonderful line from the nuclear scientist, Valery Legasov – “Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later that debt is paid.”

    Now it’s our turn. Covid-19 truths and debts are coming due.

  • Interesting Corporate Activity Despite Covid-19 Fear Fest

    Pandemics are scary and the loss of life is a genuine tragedy. On a more positive note, the decisive actions of authorities in the likes of South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore will hopefully provide a public health management template for Ireland and its European neighbours. Containment is key and discipline critical. Contagion can also be an unexpected risk in finance and is usually caused by rogue activity. Step forward Mohammed Bin Bonesaw.

    Not content with the murder of a US-based journalist, the Crown Prince of subtle appears to have set his sights on dismembering Texas and North Dakota from the election coffers of the GOP. Currently, markets are experiencing full-blown panic as Saudi and Russian leaders decided at the weekend that a deliberate oil pricing implosion was just what the world needed. Presumably, Agent Orange in the White House might have a different view after a few calls from Wall Street and Houston have set him straight.

    Good news at the gas pumps maybe, but not so good for oil companies and their creditors, the banks and junk bondholders. Once again the global banking system is about to be challenged. It is not news to readers here that financial services companies are already under pressure. The challenge for them is the adoption of technology to survive competition from nimble new entrants and existing players who execute digital transitions swiftly. Not unlike the Covid-19 crisis, swift decisive action rather than words is required.

    The good news is that recent headlines would suggest that there has been an acceleration of corporate activity which provides hard evidence of a renewed urgency in financial services. Take your pick from the following.

    A global crisis like Covid-19 will remain primarily a challenge for humanity with tragic losses. However, it will hopefully run its course like every other pandemic in human history. As financial observers, it will be instructive to see which sectors took decisive strategic action in a period of huge business uncertainty. It is not unreasonable to suggest that the necessity for certain sectors like financial services to act right now tells a bigger story than mere fear. Some business models have no choice; the failure to act will be fatal.

     

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  • Pull Back The Curtain On 10 Covid-19 Truths

    No matter how many times Donald Trump clicks his platform-boosted heels the Coronavirus will not go back to Kansas or a Chinese food market. Science and reality now have the upper hand as Covid-19 goes global and takes a tragic human toll. Beyond the tragic fatalities from the virus, the uncertainty surrounding its infection rates and pressures on healthcare systems has created fear at the very highest levels.

    The G-7 nations are planning an emergency conference call today as containment measures threaten to cripple global economic activity.  Already, shipping container traffic into the West Coast of the US is down 25%, tourist traffic into France is estimated to be 40% below average, airlines are cutting capacity everywhere and Apple’s manufacturing facilities in China are operating at just 25% staffing levels. Central banks across the globe are signaling financial support and the G-7 call is a recognition that this is probably the biggest shock to the global economy since the GFC in 2008-2009.

    As with all shocks, the global economy and financial markets will recover in time. However, like the virus itself, financial stress does have a habit of exposing activities and policies which have, to date, been untested or have escaped more forensic scrutiny.  As Warren Buffett has said, “It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked”.  With the benefit of experience from previous financial crises we would advise readers to watch the following closely as the curtain of normality is pulled back:

    1. Peak China: Irrespective of how history reviews the actions of Chinese authorities in containing Covid-19, the almost total shut down of the Middle Kingdom’s manufacturing base will prompt serious review in multi-national C-suites. The era of concentrating one’s manufacturing assets in one region/country is over. Expect the likes of Vietnam, Albania, Mexico, Colombia and Indonesia to benefit from likely diversification of manufacturing activities.
    2. Zombie Apocalypse: Ultra-low interest rates have helped weak franchises stay afloat as banks avoid painful loan write-downs. Given many healthy franchises will need financial support, banks might finally have to cut loose the zombie companies and save those with a genuine future.
    3. Governing the Gig Economy: The explosion of task-based contract work through digital platforms has created an army of independent workers in the services sector. This independence is a double-edged sword. In a public health emergency, one wonders, particularly in transport based services, whether governance is strong enough at a corporate level to ensure compliance with safety guidelines. Expect increased regulation in the future of gig work which is now firmly embedded in nearly all economies. For illustration, 36% of US workers are involved in the gig economy through primary or secondary jobs.
    4. CEO Health: We have written in a previous article how Churchill advised never to waste a good crisis. A large spike in CEO departures is already underway as Covid-19 is used as a convenient curtain to camouflage structural challenges facing certain sectors.
    5. Financial Fraud: Enron was a TMT crisis reveal; Bernie Madoff and multiple banks were our GFC gifts of the gab and gruesome. Whither Covid-19? Readers won’t have to wait too long we fear as cashflow and credit stalls.
    6. Panic Platforms: Markets have experienced furious gyrations over the past week. There have been repeated warnings over the years that liquidity won’t be sufficient to handle customer requests to redeem/sell/buy in high volume scenarios ie panic. Spare a thought for clients of the Robinhood investment platform for retail traders which seized up yesterday. Never good to miss out on a 5% up day. Even worse if, as speculated, the website shut down due to coders missing out the Leap Year 29th
    7. Ghoulish Globalisation: Sadly, China is at the epicentre of the storm and ultimately consumers in the West facing product shortages will only encourage the likes of Trump and Boris to “take back control” and make steel, coal and toilet roll great again. Expect a further wrongly-informed electoral retreat from globalism and additional delusional nationalism.
    8.  Sub-Prime Oil: If we recall the GFC crisis there’s usually one sector that kicks off the financial domino chain of credit implosions. In 2008 “The Big Short” was the sub-prime mortgage sector in the US which killed off Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual and Countrywide. The sector we are watching most closely right now is the shale oil producers in the US. The sector has binged on junk bonds at very low-interest rates and is already struggling to generate positive cash flow. The oil & gas production sector, loved by Trump, accounts for a very large portion of junk bond indices so any sharp falls in these benchmarks will be a red flag that a demand shock (oil price drop) is going to trigger plenty of Chapter 11 filings and very ugly write-downs at large US banks.
    9. Balance Sheet Supremacy: Critical to understanding the financial threat of Covid-19 is that this is both a supply (chain) and demand (spend) shock. Hence the G-7 emergency call. This writer’s experience of the financial world’s army of equities analysts is that they spend the vast majority of their time trying to forecast earnings with almost no benefit to investors and abysmally fail to understand the company balance sheet dynamics of a sharp reduction in revenues. Great analysts (very few) and great companies(many in Ireland with huge GFC experience) will prosper post-crisis with fewer competitors and enhanced credibility.
    10. Politics Meets Facts: Death doesn’t do “spin”. Funerals and ICU units are real and the statistics will rebuff the most egregious exponents of science denial. It is very possible Covid-19 will be the death knell of the Trump presidency as the US grapples with the structural problems of so many outside the support net of government. No sick pay, no insurance, no education and no information could cause a far higher death toll per capita than other “developed” countries. Katrina and New Orleans destroyed Bush; thoughts and prayers won’t save Mike Pence or the President.

     

    If there is a single long term positive of a challenging Covid-19 crisis it must be the hope that science and facts reveal poor actors, incompetence and dangerous misinformation. Sadly, the human costs could be far higher than a digitally informed world would have hoped….

                    “Some people without brains do an awful lot of talking, don’t you think?” 

                                                                                                     – Scarecrow in The Wizard of Oz.

     

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  • Corona Contagion Or Brexit Lesson?

    There used to be an old trading rule of thumb that if British Airways financial performance started to suffer then it was sensible to sell the shares of global investment banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse. The trader thinking was that a drop in profitable business bookings on BA signaled a downturn in international financial activity. Today’s news that BA is suspending flights to and from China did prompt some similar thoughts. Clearly, the Corona Virus is a medical story first as medical authorities struggle to contain the outbreak. The good news is Australian scientists have made some progress in recreating the virus and ultimately finding a vaccine. The bad news is possibly more financial.

    Despite the best efforts of Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and other stable geniuses to mislead on trade, the global economy is incredibly connected these days. Just-in-time supply chain management allows companies to efficiently manufacture goods and sell to consumers at ever-cheaper prices. As we digest Apple’s astounding quarterly results from last night, we couldn’t help noting that AirPods alone are on course to exceed $20 billion of sales. This product only launched 4 years ago and is on the cusp of matching the annual global revenues of  Starbucks by 2021. Mind-blowing.

    Apple is Exhibit A in incredible manufacturing/supply chain management;  through 2019 Apple was shipping more than 500,000 iPhones and 150,000 AirPods on a DAILY basis. However, it needs air freight to move high-value parts and finished products around the globe. The BA news today will focus minds. Airfreight moves $6 trillion of goods globally each year which is more than a third of global trade by value. In our previous piece “Charting A Dose Of Flu” we flagged that the real worry for financial authorities is a global halt of the cross border movement of people and goods. One can be hopeful that the medical outcome will be managed but the economic damage could be significant for companies in 2020. Here’s a few headlines which caught the eye:

    Financial markets yesterday recovered from Monday’s swoon but it is difficult to see how the Coronavirus will not inflict financial pain on companies and that is before we start to read headlines about supply chain interruptions for manufacturers all over the world. Bosch has already warned about problems brewing in its own operations which employ 400,000 people globally with 60 factories in China alone. They probably know what they are talking about.

    The above information is just that. It is not a call to panic. Markets encounter external shocks all the time. On the contrary, a little deflation of markets is healthy and allows investors to avail of cheaper opportunities. Perhaps, the more significant lesson is for the anti-globalist delusionists occupying political leadership positions. Disruption to global trade or trade agreements can be incredibly painful. So, take that as our 50 pence worth for Boris and the Big Ben clappers. Sadly, the commemorative tea towels for January 31st won’t be sufficient to clear up the Brexit mess.